After the collapse of the Soviet Union, an American-European duopoly developed in the production of long-haul passenger airliners (that is, aircraft with a capacity of 150 people and a maximum flight range of more than 4000-5000 km): the market was divided by Boeing and Airbus (in Russia, aircraft of the same size - Tu -204 and Il-96, but their production is single for state needs). The same concentration took place in the production of regional jet airliners (with a capacity of up to 100 people and a maximum flight range of less than 4,000 km): by the beginning of the 2000s, there were two companies that produce such aircraft in truly serial production - the Canadian Bombardier and the Brazilian Embraer (in Russia and in Ukraine there is, or rather, the small-scale production of an aircraft of this class An-148). It was in the regional segment that the countries that wanted to join a narrow circle of manufacturers of jet passenger aircraft first appeared: Russia with the Sukhoi Superjet project, China with the ARJ-21 aircraft and Japan with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet aircraft. But the market for long-haul aircraft is much more capacious and profitable, and at the turn of the 2010s. three more players announced projects in this segment (analogues of Boeing 737 and A319 / 320/321): Russia with the MC-21 project of the Irkut corporation, China with the C919 aircraft from COMAC and the Canadian Bombardier, whose new CSeries airliner is approaching in terms of passenger capacity " bottom "to the shortest versions of the Boeing 737 and to the European A319.
Giants Predictions
Aircraft corporations regularly publish 20-year forecasts for the passenger aircraft and transportation markets - few industries have presented the same long-term forecasts to the public. At the same time, the demand for specific models is not indicated - the breakdown is by class of airliners. The forecasts are made on the basis of thorough and many years of marketing and economic research, but, of course, they cannot foresee such events that at one time hit the market hard, such as the terrorist attacks in the USA on September 11, 2001 or the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. According to Boeing's latest forecast (published in the fall of 2014), 36,770 mainline airliners will be produced by 2033, and their global fleet will increase from 20,910 aircraft in 2013 to 42,180 in 2033. produced by 2033, will amount to a staggering $ 5.2 trillion (almost a third of the US GDP or about three of Russia's GDP in 2014). Of the 25,680 aircraft produced in the forecasted twenty years, that is, almost 70%, in the Boeing classification, will be “long-haul aircraft with one aisle” (Boeing 737, A320, MS-21 and C919), and in value terms, their share will be about 48%. Regional aircraft, to which Boeing includes the Sukhoi Superjet, will be produced 2,490 units, but their monetary share will be less than 2%, or about $ 100 billion. At the same time, the market capacity of Russia and the CIS countries, which are allocated by the American corporation into a separate regional market along with the Northern America, Latin America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa, by 2033, will amount to 1,330 aircraft worth $ 150 billion (or 3% of the total world market). The former USSR will need 990 MC-21 aircraft, and 160 regional airliners.
Why "Tu" and "Il" disappeared
AT best years the Soviet aviation industry produced up to 150 passenger jet aircraft a year. In 1991, the last year of the existence of the USSR, 37 Tu-154s, six Il-86s, one Il-96, two Tu-204s and 13 Yak-42s were produced, i.e., a total of 59 jet airliners, while EADS (now Airbus) has produced about 170 and Boeing about 600 passenger aircraft. Throughout the 90s. in the West, there were processes of consolidation of the aircraft industry (as a result of which only Boeing remained in the United States instead of three aircraft manufacturers), while all Soviet design bureaus and factories were privatized (or separated into state enterprises) separately. After the collapse of the USSR, the civil aircraft industry in Russia found itself in a state of collapse, which was caused by a combination of many factors: the most severe economic crisis, under-implementation of new projects, lack of modern maintenance and financial support for aircraft sales, resulting from the collapse of air transportation, a large surplus fleet of virtually free for airlines machines. Starting in 2001, the state began to look for forms of industry consolidation, which ended only in the second half of this decade with the creation of the UAC. At the same time, there was a difficult process of integration from below, the core of which was the two surviving companies that had funds from the sales of fighters to China and India - Sukhoi and Irkut. It is not surprising that these two companies have put forward projects for new civil aircraft - Sukhoi Superjet, which won the competition in 2002 to create a regional aircraft, and MS-21, the government decree on the creation of which was issued in 2010. At the same time, neither the Tu-204, of which about 80 units were produced in total, nor the Il-96 (more than 20) never became truly serial due to the lack of introduction in the 90s - early 2000s. their engines, very weak sales support, and IL-96 - and because of the four-engine, less economical than Western competitors, the scheme. At the same time, Boeing and Airbus did not sit idly on the Russian market during the 2000s. occupied a dominant position on it as the mass decommissioning of Soviet aircraft. The issue of international cooperation is no less important. In the mid-2000s, European EADS was the closest to becoming the main partner of the Russian aviation industry: it became the owner of 10% of Irkut shares, and the Russian VTB bank bought 5% of EADS shares on the market. However, there were no decisive steps towards partnership, for various reasons, including political ones.
Airbus's 20-year forecast, published at the June Le Bourget Air Show, is not radically different from Boeing's forecast, but is more moderate. Sales volume by 2034 will amount to $ 4.9 trillion, the total number of new airliners produced will be 32,585 (12% lower than Boeing's), the number of cars with one passenger aisle will be 22,927, and at a cost of 55%. There is, however, a notable difference: Airbus predicts that demand for extra-large aircraft (such as the A380 and Boeing 747) will be 1,550, while Boeing expects only 620 to find buyers. This is not surprising, since the largest and most modern aircraft of this type, the A380, is produced by Airbus, while Boeing abandoned the development of an aircraft of this size in favor of a radical modernization of the Boeing 747. The forecast of the European aviation concern suggests that in 20 years the number of the largest air hubs in the world will grow to 91 from the current 47 (from Russia and now, and in 20 years they will be represented only by the Moscow air hub), namely, the A380 concept is focused on transportation between them.
Share for Sukhoi Superjet
Canadian Bombardier's forecast published last year focuses on aircraft of the size it produces. The company's marketers believe that by 2033 the demand for airliners from 100 to 149 seats (which includes short versions of the Boeing 737 and A319, as well as the CSeries airliner developed by the Canadian company) will amount to 7100 units, or $ 465 billion in monetary terms. In its forecast published at the last Le Bourget, Embraer expects the delivery of 6,350 jet aircraft with a capacity of 70 to 130 seats by 2034, including 380 in Russia and the CIS.
Thus, all forecasts of global aircraft manufacturers provide for a significant market niche for Sukhoi Superjet. The truly serial production of this aircraft (37 units produced), launched last year, has led to the fact that it occupied approximately 10% of the total sales of regional jet airliners.
View from Russia
A representative of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft said that, according to the company's forecasts, for the period 2015–2034. the capacity of the market for cars with a capacity of 91–120 seats will amount to 2,600 units, and the SSJ share - 14%, ie 364 units.
However, much more ambitious is the MS-21 project, which, like the Chinese C919, is aimed at the most capacious niche of the world market, where it will face much tougher competition from Boeing and Airbus, which will be brought to the market in 2016–2017. its new modifications Boeing 737MAX and A320neo, equipped with new highly efficient engines. The MC-21 will have the same engine as the A320neo, but it will be the first airliner with a composite (black) wing and will be equipped with a large number of the latest innovative systems, only the first flight is planned in 2016 (Sukhoi Superjet from the first test flight to the first commercial took about four years).
Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, believes that the realistic sales plans russian aircraft new types are determined by three factors. First, the production capabilities of the assembly sites - and there are no risks here. Secondly, the stability of cooperation in the supply of components - and this risk in the event of an aggravation of the international situation, the Russian aviation industry does not control. Thirdly, the possibilities of promotion to the world market - this issue is also not controlled by the aviation industry, but if the existing export support policy is maintained, the situation will look controllable.
The global civil aircraft market is 90% "captured" by the American company Boeing and the European manufacturer Airbus. However, it seems that the hegemony of these companies will soon come to an end. Who is able to press these titans? Which companies and countries are going to get involved in the fight?
The civil aircraft market is a global growing market without national borders and at the same time is characterized by fierce competition from domestic manufacturers. Daunting technological challenges and high costs are the reason why only a small number of countries and a few large companies operate in the aircraft industry. Thus, competition in the aircraft manufacturer market is oligopolistic; dominated by a few large international companies with a strong influence on the entire market.
The leaders of the civil aircraft industry in recent decades are Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EC), which occupy more than 90% of the world market for passenger aircraft, but the technological development of the industry and the emerging demand patterns in the coming years will lead to the destruction of the already familiar duopoly of Western aircraft manufacturing giants. In this work, we deliberately do not include in the analysis the plight of the domestic aviation industry, which was the subject of another article by the author (Tolkachev S.A. The new look of the domestic aviation industry // Capital of the country, 09/01/2010.), In order to consider in its pure form the tough the world market of civil airliners, where a place has been prepared for Russia in the backyards after the inglorious surrender of positions (in fact, as in the First World War) as a result of the collapse of the USSR and the socialist bloc in 1989-1991. One of the forms of indemnity for the alleged "defeat" of the USSR in the Cold War with the West was the surrender to the "winners" of the gigantic market of civil aircraft, estimated at that time at 40% of the world. As will become clear from further discussion, only on this "democratic" Russia, as the successor to the USSR, lost at least 1 trillion rubles in 20 years. dollars (!) or the total cost of oil exports for the same period. Therefore, to seriously approach the analysis of the world market of airliners with the participation of fragments of the mighty Soviet aviation industry, which today timidly knocks on the door either with unfinished late Soviet developments (Tu-204, Tu-334, An-148), or with gineriks of Western models (Sukhoi Superjet 100, MS-21), I just don't want to.
1. The main segments of the civil aircraft market
All civil aircraft manufactured in the world intended for the mass transportation of passengers are divided into the following segments depending on the type of fuselage and flight range:
1) medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft:
The fuselage diameter is 5 to 6 meters. An airplane with two aisles in the cabin. There are usually from 7 to 10 passenger seats in a row. For comparison, in narrow-body aircraft, the fuselage diameter is usually 3-4 meters. In the passenger compartment of a wide-body aircraft, the seats are arranged in 3-5 rows. On average, a wide-body aircraft can take on board 300-500 people.
The following wide-body aircraft are currently in operation (Table 1):
Table 1. Main wide-body aircraft in service.
| aircraft type | years of release | number of passengers | maximum range | total released |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A 300 | 1972-2007 | 270 | 7 000 | 561 |
| A 310 | 1982-1997 | 205-280 | 9 000 | 255 |
| IL-86 | 1980-1997 | 350 | 4 600 | 106 |
| MD-11 | 1988-2000 | 298-410 | 13 400 | 200 |
| B 747 | 1969-present | 366-524 | 14 800 | 1 419 |
| T 767 | 1982-present | 180-375 | 11 300 | 1 000 |
| A 340 | 1991-present | 261-475 | 16 700 | 374 |
| IL-96 | 1993-present | 300-436 | 12 000 | 29 |
| A 330 | 1994-present | 255-295 | 13 000 | 671 |
| In 777 | 1994-present | 301-451 | 17 500 | 901 |
| A 380 | 2007-present | 525-963 | 15 400 | 60 |
| B 787 | 2009-present | 210-350 | 16 300 | 7 |
| A 350 (project) | ---- | 270-412 | 15 700 | ----- |
2) medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft:
Fuselage diameter up to 4 meters. Compared to wide-body aircraft, narrow-body aircraft take on board a much smaller number of passengers and, as a rule, have a shorter flight range. The maximum passenger capacity is 289 people.
Narrow-body aircraft in particular include (Table 2):
- Airbus А320 is the most massive European passenger jet aircraft.
- The Boeing 737 is the most massive passenger jet in the world.
- Il-62 is a narrow-body aircraft with the longest range.
- Tu-154 - the most massive Soviet passenger jet aircraft
Table 2. Main narrow-body aircraft in service.
| Aircraft type | Years of release | Passengers | Maximum range | Total issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caravelle | 1959-2005 | 104-130 | 1 800 | 285 |
| IL-62 | 1966-2010 | 186 | 11 000 | 277 |
| Tu-154 | 1968-2011 | 150-180 | 3 500 | 1 020 |
| Yak-42 (142) | 1977-2002 | 100-120 | 4 000 | 188 |
| MD-80 | 1980-1998 | 140-172 | 4 500 | 1 191 |
| B 757 | 1982-2004 | 200-280 | 7 200 | 1 050 |
| B 717 (MD95) | 1998-2006 | 98-106 | 3 800 | 156 |
| B 737 | 1968-new | 85-215 | 6 000 | 6 285 |
| A 320 (318/319) | 1987-present | 107-220 | 6 500 | 4 181 |
| Tu-204 | 1990-present | 164-212 | 7 500 | 66 |
| Tu-334 | 2000-nv | 102-138 | 4 100 | 5 (tested) |
| Embraer ERJ 195Х | 2006-present | 106-118 | 3 990 | n / a |
| Bombardier CSeries | plan 2013 | 100-150 | 5 500 | --- |
| MS-21 (project) | plan 2016 | 150-212 | 5 500 | --- |
| COMAC С919 (project) | plan 2014 | 168-190 | n / a | --- |
3) regional aircraft:
Even smaller aircraft are classified as regional aircraft. They carry up to 100 passengers over distances of up to 2-3 thousand kilometers. These aircraft can be fitted with both turboprop and turbojet engines. Such aircraft include aircraft of the ERJ, CRJ, ATR, Dash-8 and SAAB families (Table 3).
Table 3. The main types of regional aircraft in service.
| Aircraft type | Years of release | Passengers | Maximum range | Total issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| An-24 | 1962-1979 | 48 | 1 000 | 1367 |
| Yak-40 | 1966-1981 | 27-36 | 1 300 | 1013 |
| BAe 146 / Avro RJ | 1987-2003 | 85-100 | 2 000 | 387 |
| Fokker 100 | 1986-1997 | 85-119 | 3 100 | 238 |
| An-28 (An-38) | 1969-present | 18-27 | 900 | 191 |
| Bombardier DHC-8 (series) | 1984-present | 37-78 | 2 500 | 844 for 2008 |
| ATR 42 | 1984-present | 40-50 | 1 500 | 390 |
| ATR 72 | 1989-present | 50-75 | 1 300 | 408 |
| Bombardier CRJ (series) | 1991-present | 50-100 | 3 800 | 533 |
| Embraer ERJ 145 (series) | 1999-present | 35-50 | 3 000 | 1000 for 2007 |
| An-140 | 1999 -in | 52 | 2 400 | 12 |
| IL-114 | 2001-present | 64 | 1 500 | 16 |
| Embraer E-Jet (series) | 2002-present | 78-100 | 4 600 | 660 |
| SukhoiSuperjet 100 | 2008-present | 68-98 (130) | 4 500 | 8 |
| An-148 (158) | 2009-present | 70-99 | 6 200 | 13 |
| ARJ21 (China) | 2008 | 70-100 | 3 700 | 1 (experience) |
| MitsubishiRegionalJet (project) | 2014 plan | 70-90 | 3 000 | --- |
| Tu-324 (414) project | there is no data | 52-76 | 3 500 | --- |
4) local planes:
The smallest class of passenger aircraft are local aircraft, designed to carry a small number of passengers (from 20) over distances of up to 1000 kilometers. They are most often equipped with turboprop or piston engines. The most common aircraft of this class are Cessna and Beechcraft.
For a better understanding, we present a comparative table 4, which includes all segments of civil aircraft.
Table 4. Segments of the passenger aircraft market and their projected capacity (natural and value) for the period 2005-2024
2. The main companies participating in the civil aircraft market
The passenger aircraft market has historically been dominated by American and European manufacturers. Boeing and Airbus are the largest civil aircraft manufacturers in the world.
Airbus S.A.S (pronounced Airbus) - one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies, produces the same name passenger, cargo and military transport aircraft. The company is headquartered in Toulouse, France. In 2001, according to French law, it was merged into a joint stock company or "S.A.S." (French Société par Actions Simplifiée - a simplified joint stock company). The sole shareholder of Airbus is EADS. Airbus employs about 50 thousand people and is concentrated mainly in four European countries: France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain. Final assembly of products is carried out at the company's factories in Toulouse (France) and Hamburg (Germany).
Airbus' civil aircraft lineup began with the twin-engine A300. The shortened version of the A300 is known as the A310. Building on the lack of success of the A300, Airbus began developing the A320 project with an innovative fly-by-wire control system. The A320 was a great commercial success for the company. The A318 and A319 are shortened versions of the A320 which, with some modifications, are offered by Airbus for the corporate jet market (AirbusCorporateJet). The extended version of the A320 is known as the A321 and competes with the later Boeing 737s.
Inspired by the success of the A320 family, Airbus decided to develop a family of even larger aircraft. This is how the twin-engine A330 and the four-engine A340 appeared. One of the key features of the new aircraft is the new wing design, it has a greater relative thickness, which increases its design efficiency and internal fuel volumes. The Airbus A340-500 has a range of 16,700 kilometers, which is the second longest range for commercial jet aircraft after the Boeing 777-200LR (range 17,446 km).
The company is particularly proud of its proprietary fly-by-wire technology, unified cockpit and on-board systems used in all in-house aircraft families; they make it much easier to train the crew and retrain to new models.
The latest development of the A350XWB company is designed to compete with the new Boeing model - 787.
The boeing company - one of the world's largest manufacturers of aviation, space and military equipment.
The headquarters is located in Chicago (Illinois, USA).
The main production facilities of the company are located in the cities: Everett (Washington state), California, St. Louis (Missouri).
The company produces a wide range of civil and military aviation equipment, being, along with Airbus, the largest aircraft manufacturer in the world. In addition, Boeing manufactures a wide range of military aerospace equipment (including helicopters) and conducts large-scale space programs (for example, the CST-100 spacecraft).
The factories of the company are located in 67 countries of the world. The company supplies its products to 145 countries of the world. Boeing works with more than 5,200 suppliers in 100 countries.
In 2001, a division of Boeing International was formed, which controls the work of the company in 70 countries of the world, except for the US market, where it is responsible for the development and implementation of the company's global development strategy. It determines and evaluates the competitive advantages and opportunities in the host country for the development of intellectual resources and technologies, the development of partnerships and business.
3. Comparative characteristics of the release of Airbus and Boeing
The companies operate mainly in the segments of narrow-body and wide-body short- and medium-haul aircraft.
Below is a comparative characteristic of the production of certain aircraft models by year.
- ? B-737 and A320. Medium-sized aircraft for medium-haul airlines, each type has many modifications. In recent years, A320s have been sold in higher volumes than Boeing products.
Table 5. Deliveries of Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 aircraft for 1988-2010
| 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A320 | 401 | 402 | 386 | 367 | 339 | 289 | 233 | 232 | 236 | 257 | 241 |
| B-737 | 398 | 372 | 290 | 330 | 302 | 212 | 202 | 173 | 223 | 299 | 281 |
| 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A320 | 222 | 168 | 127 | 72 | 56 | 64 | 71 | 111 | 119 | 58 | 58 | 16 |
| B-737 | 320 | 281 | 135 | 76 | 89 | 121 | 152 | 218 | 215 | 174 | 146 | 165 |
- B-747 and A380. High capacity aircraft for medium to long haul airlines. Asian airlines, traditional users of the 747s, are the main customers of the A380. Currently, B-747s are produced in an amount of no more than 10 units per year, there are very few new orders for passenger cars (out of 99 ordered since the beginning of 2006, only 27 B-747s are passenger). At the same time, the A380 order book has increased by 60 passenger liners since the beginning of 2006.
- B-767 and A330. The Airbus aircraft has proved to be more commercially successful in recent years.
Table 6. Deliveries of Airbus A330 and Boeing 767 aircraft for 1994-2009
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A330 | 78 | 72 | 68 | 62 | 56 | 47 | 31 | 42 | 35 | 43 | 44 | 23 | 14 | 10 | 30 | 9 |
| B-767 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 40 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 42 | 43 | 37 | 41 |
- B-777 and A340. Both aircraft appeared at the same time, but due to the higher fuel efficiency of the B-777 and a number of other factors, the American company sold twice as many aircraft as their European competitors.
Table 7. Deliveries of Airbus A340 and Boeing 777 aircraft for 1993-2009
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B-777 | 88 | 61 | 75 | 65 | 40 | 36 | 39 | 47 | 61 | 55 | 83 | 74 | 59 | 32 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| A-340 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 33 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 24 | 33 | 28 | 19 | 25 | 22 |
There are very few new orders for the A340. It is assumed that the A350 will compete with the B-777, but the development of the latter is still very far from completion.
Embraer (Empresa Brasileirade Aeronautica) Is a Brazilian aircraft construction company, one of the leaders in the world market for regional passenger aircraft. Headquarters in São Jose dos Campos, State of São Paulo.
Founded in 1969 as a state-controlled company. In the 1990s, it faced a serious crisis, after which it was completely privatized in 1994 (the state had only a "golden share" left, which gives the opportunity to veto the supply of military aircraft).
The company specializes in regional airliners and produces commercial, corporate, military, agricultural aircraft. Manufacturing facilities are concentrated in Brazil.
By 2010, the company was tied for third or fourth place with Canadian Bombardier among the largest suppliers of commercial airliners, behind Boeing and Airbus. In 2009, the company delivered more than 240 aircraft to commercial customers.
The number of staff is 17 thousand people (2005).
Embraer jet - a family of twin-engine narrow-body medium-range passenger aircraft manufactured by the Brazilian company Embraer. Includes 4 modifications: E-170, E-175, E-190 and E-195... The E-Jet was first introduced at the 1999 Le Bourget Air Show. Serial production began in 2002.
Table 8. Deliveries of Embraer E-jet 190, 195 aircraft in total for 2005-2010, pcs.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 37 | 32 | 52 | 33 | 23 |
Bombardier Inc. (Bombardier), a Canadian engineering company. The headquarters are located in Montreal, Quebec.
The company was founded in Valcourt (Quebec) in 1942 under the name L´Auto-NeigeBombardierLimitée by Joseph-Armand Bombardier. The company has been engaged in aircraft manufacturing since the mid-1980s. In 2003, the company sold its Bombardier Recreational Products division, which was engaged in the production of snowmobiles, all-terrain vehicles, jet skis, motor boats, concentrating on railway and aircraft engineering.
The company belongs to the world's largest manufacturers of business jets, regional aircraft, as well as railway equipment and trams. The main divisions of the company are the world's largest manufacturer of railway equipment Bombardier Transportation and Bombardier Aerospace, the world's third largest manufacturer of civil aircraft after Boeing and Airbus. In 2008, Bombardier employed 59,800 people.
Bombardier Canadair RegionalJet (CRJ) is a family of regional passenger jet narrow-body aircraft. The plane made its first flight on May 10, 1991. CRJ-100 became the first aircraft of the modern level among 50-seater aircraft. In terms of speed, the aircraft can be compared with larger aircraft, while its efficiency is quite consistent with the class. The family consists of several modifications, differing in fuselage length and flight range: CRJ100, CRJ 200, CRJ 700, CRJ 900.
The CRJ 900 is designed to carry 88 passengers. The Bombardier CRJ 900 made its first flight on February 21, 2001. In addition to the standard one, there are several more versions of the aircraft - extended and for long-distance flights.
The Bombardier CRJ 1000 program was launched by Bombardier Aerospace on February 19, 2007. First flown in September 2008, the 100-seat CRJ1000 is the latest model in the Canadian Regional Jet family.
Table 9. Deliveries of Bombardier CRJ 900, 1000 aircraft for 2005-2010, pcs.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 48 | 78 | 92 | 82 | 87 |
4. Forecasts of growth of the world market of civil aircraft
According to Airbus forecasts, in the next 20 years, airlines around the world will buy almost 25 thousand new long-haul aircraft for a total of 2.9 trillion. dollars. Of these, about 10 thousand will be required to replace the aging fleet, and another 15 thousand - to further increase the carrying capacity. Moreover, narrow-body airliners will be in the greatest demand. They will be sold about 18 thousand for 1.27 trillion. dollars, which will amount to 70% of the total volume of all deliveries in kind. As a result, by 2030 the global airline fleet will almost double and exceed 30,000 aircraft. High demand for new aircraft is driven by the growing need to replace low-fuel efficiency airliners, as well as the dynamic development of new markets and an increase in passenger traffic on existing routes.
Boeing predicts the market value for new civil aircraft over the next 20 years will amount to 3.6 trillion. The market growth will be accompanied by the recovery of the world economy after the crisis and an increase in demand for new and more efficient aircraft. According to the current 2011 market review, by 2029 the market capacity will be 30,900 new passenger and cargo aircraft.
Table 10. Future market value (in 2009 prices) and aircraft deliveries by region by 2029
| Region | Market value of supplies in billions of dollars | Aircraft deliveries, pcs. |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific Asia Region | 1 320 | 10 320 |
| North America | 700 | 7 200 |
| Europe | 800 | 7 190 |
| Near East | 390 | 2 340 |
| Latin America | 210 | 2 180 |
| CIS | 90 | 960 |
| Africa | 80 | 710 |
| Total | 3 590 | 30 900 |
The table shows that in the long term, the volume passenger transportation will increase by 5.3% per year under the influence of economic growth in regions with different patterns of demand for aircraft. Narrow-body aircraft will continue to be the fastest growing segment of the global market, thanks to the explosive growth in the number of low-cost airlines, the development of new markets such as India, China and Southeast Asia, and continued volatility in fuel prices. The growth rate of the narrow-body aircraft segment has outpaced the wide-body segment for the past ten years. This gap will continue to widen as older generation aircraft are removed from the airline fleet.
The highest growth rates are observed in the Asia-Pacific region, in which China is the undisputed leader.
Today, this region provides about 1/3 of the world's volume air transportation... As a result of the growth of this market, by 2029, the Asia-Pacific region will account for almost 43% of inbound, outbound and domestic traffic. China alone will need 4,300 new airliners over the next 20 years.
Local airlines will also be the most active buyers of wide-body aircraft, generating about 40% of total demand.
Another fast growing market is the Middle East, which has one of the highest air traffic growth rates in recent years. Middle East airlines have achieved rapid growth by taking advantage of their geographic location, the region's demographics, the acquisition of modern aircraft and well-thought-out investment and business development plans. To the Middle East for the period 2011-2029 2340 aircraft will be delivered.
More detailed data on the distribution of deliveries of various types of airliners by major regions is provided in the following table.
Table 11. Deliveries of aircraft by region in accordance with the size for 2011-2029.
| Region | Regional (pcs.) | With one pass (pcs.) | With two passages (pcs.) | Large (pcs.) | Total (pcs.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific Asia Region | 470 | 6 710 | 2 840 | 300 | 10 320 |
| North America | 800 | 5 180 | 1 180 | 40 | 7 200 |
| Europe | 310 | 5 380 | 1 340 | 160 | 7 190 |
| Near East | 70 | 1 100 | 1 000 | 170 | 2 340 |
| Latin America | 20 | 1 800 | 350 | 10 | 2 180 |
| CIS | 200 | 570 | 160 | 30 | 960 |
| Africa | 50 | 420 | 230 | 10 | 710 |
| Total | 1 920 | 21 160 | 7 100 | 720 | 30 900 |
5. Increased competition and the end of the duopoly
Now the total portfolio of firm orders of Airbus and Boeing for narrow-body aircraft is approaching 3 thousand units, which is only 16% of the forecast demand for these aircraft for a twenty-year period. Thus, the world market for long-haul aircraft has all the prerequisites for the emergence of at least one more major player, which, under certain circumstances, may well press the giants of the world aircraft industry. The duopoly is slowly coming to an end. Of all the aircraft manufacturers in the world, the Canadians were the first to challenge the Big Two - Airbus and Boeing. Five years ago, Bombardier decided to begin development of the C-Series narrow-body aircraft, designed to carry 110-130 passengers. Initially, the implementation of this project was hampered by the intractability of aircraft engine manufacturers, who, according to some experts, under pressure from Airbus and Boeing, showed no desire to create new engine modifications specifically for the new Bombardier aircraft. They motivated their decision by the narrowness of the sales market. But thanks to the efforts of the Canadian authorities and the position of Pratt & Whitney Canada, as well as the changed market situation, this problem was ultimately resolved. With financial support from the province of Quebec, Pratt & Whitney nevertheless developed a new Pure Power engine family. These are exactly the units that Irkut will use on its MS-21. But unlike the MC-21 program, the C-Series project has already passed more than half the way. In the middle of last year, Bombardier presented working drawings of the SC100 test aircraft, and the final design of the left side of the aircraft fuselage was shown at the Saint-Laurent plant in Montreal. Now at this enterprise, the assembly of composite panels on the tail section of the liner is already in full swing.
The new aircraft should take off in 2012, and the first deliveries of the airliner to airlines are scheduled for 2013. But, despite all the advantages of the new liners, Bombardier cannot boast of a large portfolio of orders for them: the Canadians have only 90 firm contracts for the purchase of SC100 and the same number of options. The main customers for these aircraft are the Lufthansa Group, the Irish leasing company LCI and the American Republic Holdings. But Bombardier is pinning its hopes on the Chinese market. The Canadian company expects it to become the second largest commercial aviation market over the next 20 years. To achieve this goal, the company decided to partner with Chinese aircraft industries.
China has its own project to create a long-range narrow-body aircraft - C919. And this project is nothing more than China's long-term plan to destroy the Airbus-Boeing duopoly. The name of the model and its numerical code for the Chinese have a great symbolic meaning. The first number "9" can be interpreted as "a long time that needs to be spent on overcoming a difficult route", and "19" means that the first Chinese mainline aircraft will be able to carry 190 passengers. In addition to the basic version, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) began designing two more models - for 156 and 168 passengers.
Within a few months, COMAC expects to complete the overall technical design of the aircraft and select suppliers for all key systems. This process has been actively going on for the last year and a half.
COMAC plans that the first flight of the C919 should take place in 2014, and commercial operation of the airliner will begin in 2016. In total, the Chinese intend to produce 2,500 new aircraft within 20 years. However, COMAC has not yet paid firm orders for С919. But there is no doubt that they will appear in the near future.
The expansion of three new mainline aircraft manufacturers into the market at once forced Airbus and Boeing to begin full-scale preparations to repel the attack. Airbus has decided to launch a re-engining program for the A320 family airliners, which will be named NEO after being equipped with new engines. The European concern intends to invest about 1 billion euros in this project. The new aircraft will be equipped with all the same engines of the LEAP-X and PurePower families. Moreover, Airbus intends to equip its modernized airliners with new wingtips, which will further reduce fuel consumption by 3-4%. Thus, the total fuel savings will be about 18%. The design of the A320 NEO airframe is 95% similar to the aircraft of this family currently in operation. The European concern only has to strengthen the wing and pylons. The re-engineered aircraft will hit the market in 2016 and will cost only $ 6 million more than their predecessors. In total, Airbus intends to sell about 4 thousand A320 NEOs. And it is possible that sooner or later this plan will be implemented. Within a month and a half of sales, Airbus has already acquired three large customers. The starting customer of the A320 NEO was Virgin America, which signed a contract for the purchase of 30 aircraft. India's IndiGo and Malaysia's AirAsia soon followed suit, signing preliminary agreements to acquire more than 200 new aircraft. This led to the fact that the shares of EADS (parent company of Airbus) for the day rose in price by 5%. The company's management is confident that the residual value of the existing A320 models will not be affected much, but the newly-made competitors of the European concern will have a hard time.
Boeing saw the launch of the NEO project as a belated response to its Next Generation aircraft, which have been in production for over a decade. At the same time, Boeing intends to create a new aircraft family in the near future to replace the existing versions of the Boeing 737 NG. The company understands Airbus's expectations from the release of the new NEO model, but does not see the need for such airliners; the company's strategy, in accordance with the expectations of its customers, is aimed at designing a new aircraft.
Brazilian Embraer is also considering the possibility of creating a new mainline aircraft for 110-130 passengers. The company is waiting for Boeing to make the final decision on the release of its new liner, and even then it will think whether it is worth it to engage in a competing project.
***
The modern aviation industry is a global network of thousands of specialized suppliers of various components and manufacturing services located around the world, incl. and in Russia.
The stage of stabilization is inherent in the current state of the aviation industry market. It is characterized by an established mature market for the products of the relevant industry. This means that the aviation industry market is segmented:
- medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft;
- medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft;
- regional aircraft;
- local planes.
An important feature of the state of the civil aircraft market today is the continuous increase in the role of innovation for achieving success: changing the situation in the external environment requires a revision of the role and place of innovation in the activities of companies. Analysis of the development trend of the world market in the XX century, revealed the main feature: the development of the market consists in a continuous increase in volatility, instability and unpredictability.
The development strategies of the world's leading manufacturers of civil aircraft are based on continuous technological improvement of their products and reduction of operating costs of offered aircraft models, including fuel consumption and repair and maintenance costs, as well as the development of deep and long-term relationships with airlines by providing them with comprehensive support in operation. , modernization and renewal of the aircraft fleet. At the current stage, the range of products manufactured by Boeing and Airbus, as well as Embraer and Bombardier, is largely similar when compared in terms of characteristics such as size, range and cost of the aircraft.
In the conditions of the decline in which the world economy is located, the infrastructure sectors, in particular, the transport sector, have suffered quite badly. Enough has been written and said about the global crisis in freight transport, especially those carried out by sea, and here the situation in Russia differs slightly from the global state of affairs, at least in terms of the dynamics of operating indicators.
Revenue from passenger and cargo air transportation
Source: IATA
The turning point, by and large, came back during the financial crisis of 2008 - since then, the world trade turnover has not yet been able to confidently return to the previous state of vigorous growth, limited to a sluggish recovery, but passenger transportation with the recovery of disposable income of the population was able to - the industry has been booming over the past five years.
Dynamics of volumes of passenger and cargo air transportation
Source: IATA
With regard to civil air transportation, however, the situation is remarkable in that the situation on the domestic market with the onset of the currency crisis diverged from the global trend as a whole by almost 180%. There are several main reasons for this, and it is their consideration, coupled with a general overview of this market, which, without exaggeration, covers almost the entire planet, and this article will be devoted.
The history of civil aviation goes back over a century. Since the First World War, it has experienced several peculiar intra-industry technological structures before taking the direction of development that most airlines are now following. The first passenger monoplanes were small, carried 7-10 passengers and were mainly variations on the theme of military aircraft of those design bureaus in which they were created. In the 1930s, the trend reversed with the emergence of the DC-3, the most massive passenger aircraft in history, which, in turn, served the military well. The 50s were marked by the appearance of the first serial jet liners, which by the beginning of the 70s, with the active growth of transcontinental passenger traffic and the emergence of more powerful engines, led to a period of gigantomania in the industry, when manufacturers tried to build, and airlines, in turn, operated as possibly larger planes that could accommodate several hundred people, since the Boeing-707 and other aircraft of this type used at that time could no longer cope with the flow of passengers on busy destinations. The successful introduction of such airliners was prevented by the oil crisis, which made the use of large and uneconomical machines unprofitable, but their capacity still played a role - with a consistent increase in passenger traffic, they are still actively used by large airlines.
Historical dynamics of world passenger turnover
Towards the beginning of this century, the emphasis shifted towards the development of engines with greater fuel efficiency and the large-scale use of small regional aircraft with a capacity of about 120-180 seats - according to the forecasts of the overwhelming majority of industry experts, the near future lies with them, and over the next twenty years 70% of demand on the part of airlines it will be for this class of aircraft. In total, the world's airlines now use about 22 thousand passenger airliners, it is assumed that this number will double by 2034, while the total demand will be about 38 thousand aircraft.
Forecast of changes in the world fleet of passenger aircraft
Source: Boeing Market Review
Of this number, 16 thousand will replace obsolete aircraft operated by airlines now, and 22 thousand will provide an increase in the fleet corresponding to the growing passenger traffic - analysts agree that in the next two decades the total passenger traffic will grow more than two and a half times, and the lion's share of this increase will fall on regional transportation, mainly in Asia.
Forecast of the dynamics of world passenger turnover
Source: United Aircraft Corporation Market Review
The current market trend is mainly characterized by the consequences of the liberalization of the air transportation market, namely the increased number of airlines, increased competition and falling tariffs, which makes flights more affordable and supports passenger demand. Also, an essential characteristic of the market today is globalization - the concept of national companies is very vague, many carriers operate under code-share agreements, serving "groupage" flights with a transfer from one company's aircraft to another's aircraft within the framework of one ticket. At the same time, the process of consolidation of companies is observed in developed markets - this applies to Europe, the United States and Russia. In parallel with this, the boundaries between price segments that are occupied by specific companies are gradually blurring - there is a convergence of traditional transportation and low-cost format in the form of combined business models.
At the moment, the undisputed leader in terms of passenger traffic is the United States, not least due to the highest intensity of domestic traffic, due to the vast area, the relatively even location of large cities in the eastern part of the country, as well as the high degree of population mobility. In the list of ten airlines that became the world leaders in terms of passenger turnover in 2015, American carriers - American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Arilines, respectively, are in 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th places.
Top-10 airlines in terms of passenger turnover performed in 2015, billion pkm
In terms of the volume of the air fleet, by mid-2016, American companies occupied the first five places at all - American Airlines with 1556 aircraft, Delta Air lines with 1330, United Airlines with 1229, Southwest Airlines with 720 and the world leader in air cargo transportation FedEx Express with 688. So Thus, it can be calculated that only the top five companies account for about a quarter of the entire world fleet. Also, American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta Air lines lead in the number of airports connected by flights of these companies, however, in terms of the number of countries included in the route map, American carriers do not even fall into the top five - the leader is Turkish Airlines, which operates flights to 108 countries. world, followed by the largest European airlines - Lufthansa, Air France and British Airways, rounding out the top five for Qatar Airways.
Going directly to current state market, it makes sense, first of all, to note that there were two main factors that influenced the global dynamics of demand in the last completed year - these are the gradually growing demand from the countries of the East and the continued collapse of oil prices. The fall in prices in the commodity market directly mediated the fall in the dollar value of jet fuel, the costs of which account for about a third of the total operating expenses of airlines. Due to their reduction, carriers were able to afford to reduce tariffs without loss of profitability, thereby attracting new customers.
Aviation fuel cost dynamics
Russian aircraft and helicopter manufacturers face new challenges today. They will have to more actively integrate into the world market, quickly introduce new technologies and, if necessary, exchange qualified personnel.
These and other steps are contained in the draft updated Aviation Industry Strategy 2030. In addition, the document includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. “We are in favor of actively attracting private capital to the industry,” explained Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.
Benefits are not canceled
For industry participants, the existing measures of state support will remain and even expand. "We will stimulate our airlines to acquire a fleet of Russian-made aircraft," said Denis Manturov.
According to him, a new generation of suppliers should appear, working according to the strictest standards, in demand not only in the domestic but also in the global market. "The corporations of the aviation industry are already working in this direction," the minister said.
As before, the state relies on aviation science and ensuring the country's technological sovereignty. “As a result, we expect to build an economically stable, globally competitive industry, embedded in the international division of labor,” concluded Manturov.
The supplier is small but smart
A new generation of suppliers, including small and medium-sized businesses, will work not only for the aviation industry, but also for related industries - automotive, space, shipbuilding, transport engineering and others.
Today, all of the largest aircraft and helicopter manufacturers in the world work with many parts manufacturers, both large and small, focusing on the best product development, build quality and flawless after-sales service.
In Russia, the outdated industrial model of "full cycle" enterprises is still used - from casting to assembly of final products. There are almost no such enterprises left in the modern world - it is unprofitable.
The world welcomes wide cooperation and division of labor, the authors of the document state. According to the executive director of the Aviaport agency Oleg Panteleyev, the strategy directly points to the key features of the "home aircraft building" and suggests ways to solve them in line with the trends of the global aviation industry. This means that the emphasis should be placed on the independent development of the so-called critical technologies that ensure competitiveness, on inclusion in international cooperation and the division of labor.
Digital factory
The most acute problem for Russian aircraft manufacturers is the tight domestic market and the closed nature of many foreign markets.
The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) plans to produce about 35 SSJ100s a year in the near future. Opportunities allow doubling production and ensuring profitability of production due to the scale of the business. But domestically, planes in such quantities are not required. Our passengers do not earn much. and they do not fly as often as Europeans or Americans, "Oleg Panteleev explained to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. That is why it is extremely important for Russian aircraft manufacturers to gain access to the international market.
"A breakthrough to Asian markets can be ensured by the implementation of a joint Russian-Chinese project of a wide-body long-range aircraft (SHFDMS)," Oleg Panteleev believes.
The development of the export of military aircraft will be facilitated by the successful combat use of strike aircraft in Syria.
“It is important to understand what will be in demand in other countries. We rely on new aircraft models. These are SSJ100, MC21, Ka62, Mi38, Ansat,” the ministry explains.
Let us remind you that SSJ100 is a regional passenger aircraft created in close international cooperation, Ansat is a modern helicopter for widespread use in civil and special purposes. Ka62 and Mi38 are multipurpose helicopters, MC21 is a short-medium-haul aircraft.
More than 250 industrial enterprises and over 400 thousand employees are currently operating in the aviation industry.
The updated Aviation Industry Strategy focuses on enhanced scientific and technical development of the industry. Despite the implementation of promising projects in recent years, Russia has accumulated a lag behind the industry leaders, especially in the civilian segment. Many key technologies in the Russian aviation industry were developed back in the 1980s. And now in the global market, the requirements for future aircraft are associated with digital technology and innovation.
For example, Airbus is introducing a digital factory, an innovation that will increase productivity, reduce logistics and energy costs by 30%. Boeing and Airbus are beginning to use 3D printing, which increases product durability by five times and cuts raw material costs by 90 percent. The development of after-sales service is also important: with the help of new developments, the speed of service provision is increasing in the world.
The projects that will turn the tide may be MC21 and the Russian-Chinese plane SHFDMS, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is counting on.
Let's join the alliance
What methods of integration into the global aviation industry are offered? In addition to export measures of state support, this is close cooperation with countries developing their own aviation industry.
"For example, China does not have sufficient experience in the design of civilian wide-body aircraft and aircraft engines. India does not have its own developments in the fifth generation fighter, civil regional, narrow- and wide-body aircraft. The Russian aviation industry has competencies and technologies in these areas and can be a reliable partner for these countries, "the Ministry of Industry and Trade explains.
In addition, international alliances are planning to build according to the "competence-for-market" scheme (for example, with China and India). Moreover, the possibility of creating joint ventures with developing countries for the development, production and promotion of aircraft is being considered.
In projects with international participation with high-tech countries, Russia is aimed at cooperation with France, Germany, USA, Great Britain, and Japan. "The creation of conditions for international cooperation will be achieved, including through political support from the state, in particular, at the level of intergovernmental agreements," the Strategy says.
When purchasing foreign aircraft, the industry participants, together with the state, will look for opportunities to meet the requirements for potential partners - to include domestic companies in international supply chains, to localize the production of components in Russia, and to conduct joint research and development work.
A separate topic is support for the domestic market for civil aircraft. When asked by RG what incentives could the airlines rely on when renewing their fleets with domestic civilian airliners SSJ100 and MC21, they said that they would create special conditions under which Russian aircraft would be competitive in operation.
The problem of the accessibility of remote regions of Russia without a well-equipped airfield infrastructure will be solved, among other things, with the help of aircraft manufactured according to the models of military transport aviation. Given the low serial production of such aircraft, the state will partially share the costs with air carriers for their operation.
Personnel turnover
Another of the strategic tasks is to create conditions for scientific centers to act as independent experts in evaluating constructive solutions and conducting certification.
For the first time in Russia there will be an institute of general designers of corporations. It is created to coordinate all actions in the field of creating military equipment, as well as for cooperation of various design bureaus. The main goal is to push the "technology transfer" from the military to the civilian sphere and back. In general, exclude duplication of design developments.
The strategy refers to the term "staff transfer". He will be able to move within the industry depending on the workload of the enterprise, the availability of vacancies and ambitions for his own career growth of employees, the ministry explained.
"There are a lot of skilled workers, but they are distributed pointwise and are inactive in comparison with other countries. For the aviation industry and related industries, it is important that people are ready to move for interesting and high-paying jobs to factories that experience a shortage of personnel, are ready to receive new knowledge, share those groundwork that has already helped to restore the industrial complex of a particular region, "- said the department.
The ministry is also considering a migration option in case of the closure of unprofitable enterprises in single-industry towns. In addition to professional development and retraining of personnel, the programs also provide for assistance in solving housing issues.
At the same time, market experts note that the Strategy covers too long a period - until 2030. The dynamics of the global development of the industry is such that the strategy will have to be updated much earlier.
Everything is private
The new industry strategy includes the gradual privatization of some state-owned companies. The aviation industry is now largely dependent on government subsidies. The lack of extra-budgetary funding sources did not allow the Aviation Industry Strategy-2015 to be fully implemented. Therefore, in the future, the stake is on additional private capital and the privatization of state-owned companies.
2.6 trillion rubles will be the total revenue of the aviation industry by 2030, if the objectives of the Strategy are met
"There are different approaches to the management of the industry in the world. The largest American and Canadian aircraft companies are ruled by private capital, in Europe the state is a shareholder. Russia can choose an intermediate flexible scheme," Oleg Panteleev approves of the privatization turn.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade clarifies that privatization is one of the possible steps to change the industrial model. The so-called non-core spheres for aircraft and helicopter manufacturers are going to be privatized, which may account for up to 60 percent of all labor costs and investments.
Infographics: "RG" / Anton Perepletchikov / Elena Berezina
The transformation of the economy is accompanied by a transition from transnational integration to transcontinental integration, which manifests itself for the world aircraft market in the emergence of prerequisites for the disappearance of such concepts as "American / European / Russian aircraft industry": the capacities of the Eastern European aircraft industry are used in the production of American aircraft; Chinese aircraft manufacturer AVIC collaborates with the European concern Airbus and the American corporation General Electric, etc. Any attempt to isolate oneself within the framework of a national scale has no prospects today. This determines the primary importance of the influence of global factors on the development of an individual company. Therefore, the modern world market of civil aircraft, on the one hand, reflects the main global economic trends of today, but on the other hand, it has its own specific development.
Trends in the development of world aircraft construction are simultaneously highlighted in the studies of aircraft building corporations that have their own research centers, and in research conducted by scientists as part of their activities in scientific institutions. Among the main studies that form the basis of the strategies of aircraft corporations are "Global Market Forecast" from Airbus, "Current Market Outlook 20122031" from Boeing, "Market Forecast" from Bombardier, Worldwide Market Forecast 2014-2033 from Japan Aircraft Development Corporation and some others. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) also regularly publishes its own research (eg "Airplane Outlook"). Partially based on such forecasts, the prospects of aircraft construction are highlighted in the scientific research of J. Wenswin and A. Wells. Sokolova, M.V. Boykova, S.D. Gavrilov and NA. Gavrilichova A. Khatypova and T.T. Khalilov, T. Boetsha, T. Viger and A. Vitmer, Y. Prikhodko and other authors.
First of all, in the available studies, the transformation of the market structure of the aircraft industry is noted and, accordingly, the strategies of the leading market agents are analyzed. However, at the same time, individual features characterizing changes in aircraft construction are highlighted, and the available forecasts for the development of the aircraft industry are based mainly on forecasting the demand for aircraft and the study of factors influencing it, and do not take into account the general direction of socio-economic development as a whole. That is, we can talk about the absence of an integrated approach in the analysis of the current state and changes in the industry, which significantly reduces the reliability and completeness of forecasts. Taking this into account, there is a need to systematize individual manifestations and form a holistic view of changes in the global aircraft market. At the same time, from our point of view, the formation of a holistic view of changes in the global aircraft industry market provides for (Figure 3.4):
firstly, the analysis of the structure of the world aircraft market, definition of segmentation criteria and main market agents, generalization of the main trends;
second, the analysis of external factors affecting the development of aircraft construction in terms of quantitative and qualitative parameters;
third, the analysis of the behavior of market actors, determining the ways of organizing a business inherent in market leaders.
Figure 3.4. at Tasks of researching changes in the global aircraft market
Aircraft market segments and structure
The modern structure of the aircraft construction market is of a matrix nature: at the same time, there is a distribution, on the one hand, into two sectors - the production of final products and consumer services (spare parts, components, services), on the other hand, each of these sectors is divided into sectors of civil and military products (Figure 3.5).
Several companies can be distinguished in the military aircraft market: Boeing - approximately 22% in the global military aircraft manufacturing in 2011, Lockheed Martin - 21%, Northrop Grumman - 11% (the combined share of US companies in the global military aircraft industry is 54%), Eurofighter - about 11%, EADS - 10%, Dassault - 4% (the aggregate share of European Union companies in the global military aircraft industry is 25%), the share of Russian companies is 20.6%. At the same time, the creation of a common Anglo-Saxon transatlantic defense market with a powerful diffusion of the military-industrial complexes of countries is observed, and on the territory of the European Union - the formation of a single defense market within the countries included in it.
Figure 3.5. at
Among the specific trends in the development of the military aircraft market, the following can be noted:
In developing countries, instead of buying new military aircraft, there is an increase in demand for the modernization of existing weapons with the provision of appropriate operational support;
Economically developed countries get rid of technically obsolete aircraft, stimulating its sale by transferring rights to licensed production, assistance in establishing service infrastructure;
The formation of demand for military aircraft depends on the political and economic climate on the planet and strategic relations between countries.
the biggest obstacle to the analysis of the military aircraft market is political bias, which manifests itself in the secrecy or lack of reliable information about the characteristics of the latest technology and contracts have been concluded. Taking into account these factors, the ratio of the market of civil and military aircraft (the total share of the military aircraft industry is about 40% of the global aircraft industry, and in the final product - about 20%), as well as the trend of borrowing technologies for civil and military aircraft, we focus on the study of the civilian market. aircraft industry in the world.
At the same time, in the civil aircraft industry, the final output is distributed between aircraft and helicopters as 88-90% / 12-10% in favor of aircraft. Therefore, we will focus the analysis of trends in the aircraft market on the example of the civil aircraft market and will carry it out through the stages shown in Figure 3.6.
Figure 3.6. at
In order to characterize the world civil aircraft market, given the significant differentiation of aviation technology, it is necessary to consider the criteria for its segmentation.
Most often, the civil aircraft market, depending on the type of fuselage and flight range, is divided into the following segments: the market for medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft, the market for medium- and long-haul narrow-body aircraft, the market for regional and the market for local aircraft (Appendix B).
This type of market segmentation is rather arbitrary and can be modified in different studies - in addition, smaller segments are distinguished or a larger hem is used.
Also, three criteria are used for segmenting the aviation market: the type of aircraft power plant (turboprop, jet), the intended purpose of the aircraft (passenger, transport), and passenger or cargo capacity. Therefore, in order to form a more holistic picture of the aircraft industry market, in the future, for market analysis, we will use mixed segmentation, presented in Appendix D.
The development of segments of the civil aircraft market is associated with the range of transportation, therefore, we will characterize the distribution of world passenger traffic by type of aircraft and flight range (see Figure 3.7). The main passenger traffic falls on narrow-body aircraft, which operate on routes from 500 to 4500 km, reaching the ASK indicator (Available Seat Kilometers - passenger seat-kilometer) in the amount of 300 to 750 million passenger seat-kilometers on lines from 1000 to 3500 km. Turboprop aircraft mainly operate on lines up to 1500 km, the same length is the main one for regional planes - on lines up to 1500 km, passenger traffic is more than 100 million passenger seats-kilometer. Passenger traffic on lines from 4000 km and more is carried out mainly by wide-body aircraft. It should be noted that routes up to 4500 km account for about 65% of passenger traffic.
Figure 3.7. at
In terms of passenger capacity with a range of up to 1000 km, the most common are airliners with a capacity of 120-169 seats, from 1001 to 2000 km - 120-169 and 170-229 seats, from 2001 to 4500 km - 120169, 170-229, 230-309 and 310-399 seats, more than 4500 km - 230-309, 310-399, 400-499 and 500-800 seats (Figure 3.8).
Figure 3.8. in (built from data)
The structure of the fleet of jet passenger aircraft in 2013 is shown in Fig. 3.9-10, from which it can be seen that the largest share in the composition of aircraft is made up with a significant predominance of aircraft with a capacity of 120-169 seats (51.22%), in second place are aircraft with a capacity 60-99 places (19.39%).
Analysis of the dynamics of the fleet of turboprop passenger aircraft in the world for 2000-2013. (Figure 3.11) demonstrates a general decline in the operation of turboprop passenger aircraft, which mostly affects the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats (by almost 30% in 2013 compared to 2000) and is slightly offset by an increase in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of over 60 places (almost 12% in 2013 relative to 2000).
Figure 3.9. in (built from data)
Figure 3.10. in (built from data)
Figure 3.11. in (built from data)
This is due to the appearance in the second half of the 1990s and early 2000s. jets with less than 50 seats, which are more economical than the corresponding turboprop aircraft. As a result, the structure of the turboprop passenger aircraft market in 2013 (see Figure 3.12) consists of three segments: aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats -51.66% (68.62% in 2000), 40-59 seats - 22.56% (23.9 in 2000), more than 60 places - 25.79% (7.49% in 2000).
Figure 3.12. in (built from data)
Let's analyze the distribution of types of airliners in the regional context (Figure 3.13 and Figure 3.14).
Figure 3.13. in (built from data)
As shown in Figure 3.13 and Appendix E, regional jets are most prevalent in North America (53.62% of total regional jet aircraft) and Europe (16.91%). Narrow-body jets are in greatest demand in the Asia-Pacific region (29.11% of the total number of narrow-body jets), North America (28.3%), and Europe (22.8%). Wide-body jets are more used for transportation in the Asia-Pacific region (37.18% of the total number of wide-body jets), Europe (20.99%), North America (16.66%).
Turboprop passenger aircraft (data in Figure 3.14 and Appendix E) are generally most used in the Asia-Pacific region (25.44% of the total number of turboprop aircraft). At the same time, North America (30.68% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 15-39 seats) and the Asia-Pacific region (22.61%) are the leaders in the local transportation market, in the regional market in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of 40-59 seats. The Pacific region (23.92% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 40-59 seats) and the CIS countries (22.15%), in the segment of aircraft with a capacity of over 60 seats - the Asia-Pacific region (32.45% of the total number of turboprop aircraft with a capacity of over 60 seats), Europe (26.8%) and North America (16.61%). To explain this proliferation of jet and turboprop passenger aircraft, an analysis of the economic and other specifics of the world's regions is required.
Figure 3.14. in (built from data)
Let's analyze the development trends of the jet cargo aircraft market (Figure 3.15).
Between 2000 and 2013, the total number of jet freighters decreased by 4.5% and the structure of this market changed. Thus, in 2000, 39.67% of the total were narrow-body cargo aircraft and 40.01% of medium wide-body cargo aircraft. After a sharp increase in the use of narrow-body cargo aircraft in 2005 to 50.28% of the total number in 2013, a proportional market structure was established (approximately 33% each segment).
Figure 3.15. in (built from data)
In addition to the economic factors that determine the use of cargo aircraft, it is necessary to take into account the existing practice of converting passenger aircraft into cargo aircraft. So, about 50% of the cargo aircraft operating in the world today were converted into cargo aircraft. Conversion of passenger aircraft begins after 10 years of operation, since the peak in use of passenger aircraft is 15 years. After conversion, up to the time of scrapping, the converted cargo aircraft have been operating for about 25 years. Since 2003, there has been a downward trend in conversion practice (Figure 3.16).
Figure 3.16. in (built from data)
Regionally, analysis of the operation of cargo aircraft in 2012 (Figure 3.17) shows that the largest share of the use of cargo aircraft falls on three regions: Asia-Pacific (29%), Europe (26%) and North America (25%) ...
Figure 3.17. in (built from data)
Let's compare, in the regional context, the movement of freight and passenger traffic. As shown in Figure 3.18, the distribution of cargo and passenger aircraft across the world has a similar distribution, which suggests that the same factors affect these markets.
Figure 3.18. in (built from data)
Let us summarize the analysis of the development of aircraft market segments (final products) by simultaneously determining the distribution of segments by manufacturer and aircraft type (Figure 3.19).
Today, two conglomerates Boeing (CELA) and Airbus S. A. S. (European Union) compete in the mainline airliners market (25.2% of the global aircraft manufacturing market), with a combined market share of over 90%; in the regional aircraft market - Bombardier (Canada) and Embraer (Brazil) with a combined market share of about 78%. Production of the CIS countries, including Ukraine, reaches about 2% of civil aircraft.
Figure 3.19. c (final products 2010-2011 according to data)
Thus, the modern world fleet of civil aircraft consists of jet and turboprop aircraft, which has a wide segmentation. Each type of aircraft, through technical and economic characteristics, has its own market niche and a certain competition area (flight range up to 1000 km; passenger capacity 60-99 seats). In general, the most common in 2013 are jet aircraft. Turboprop aircraft are gradually being decommissioned due to aging and are not replaced in an appropriate number by new ones, but it is impossible to speak of a decline in this market segment. Based on the results of the analysis of the operation of aircraft in a regional context, it is impossible to unambiguously determine the prevalence of one type of aircraft or another, therefore, an explanation of the general dynamics and distribution of traffic in the regions of the world requires the study of the factors influencing the development of the aircraft market. At the same time, it should be noted the uneven development of aircraft construction in the regions.
